Looking back at DSEI 2021, the then CGS (Chief of the General Staff, British Army) General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith KCB CBE ADC Gen unveiled his vision for the next evolution in the structure and strategic posture of the British Army (Watch below). Two years on, we review his speech and comment on its implications for defence, whilst looking forward to DSEI 2023 and offering some predictions for the speech by the new CGS, General Sir Patrick Sanders KCB CBE DSO ADC Gen.

In his 2021 speech, General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith noted that “strategic shocks tend to focus the mind,” making reference to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the 2023 CGS speech, General Sir Patrick Sanders is expected to mirror these remarks in recognition of the return of war to Europe, NATO’s proxy war being fought by Ukraine’s allies, and the Chinese threat to Taiwan, alongside a myriad of other hybrid and asymmetric threats (by both state and non-state actors).  

Throughout his address, Sir Mark highlighted how these threats exacerbate the need to maintain a “credible asymmetric advantage,” through the early adoption of advanced technologies, a more “expeditionary” and “dynamic” force structure and more “lethal” and “mobile” fighting capabilities.

He spoke of the strategies taken by the UK’s adversaries in “deliberately weaponising” globalisation. Since then, Russia’s exploitation of energy markets and threat to those nations dependent on its energy supplies, has demonstrated this painfully, with high levels of inflation following the crisis, disrupting the lives of citizens throughout NATO and across the world.

Somewhat foreshadowing the recent Russian invasion, Sir Mark emphasised how important the Army’s interoperability with allies really is. This of course became evident when governments and militaries collaborated to provide arms and training to Ukraine. Whilst the UK has been amongst the foremost contributors to the Ukrainian call for arms, there has been some conjecture as to whether the British Army has enough of its own assets to afford such a generous donation. It will be interesting to see whether the CGS speech at DSEI 2023, given by General Sir Patrick Sanders, addresses such conjectures. In the same vein, given the 2023 theme of ‘achieving an integrated force’, will CGS review how the UK’s contribution was integrated with those of allies to provide – as Sir Mark put it – a “credible asymmetric advantage over our adversaries”?

Any potential capability gaps left by the donation of assets to the Ukraine might be mitigated by the news that some of those allies, who had long been dragging their heels with regard to NATO’s 2% target, have since made major budget commitments. Most notably, the new defence budgets of Japan and Germany, which are set to contribute significantly, bring with them major industrial capabilities. The announcement that Japan, Italy and the UK are partnering for the Global Combat Air Programme (Tempest) demonstrates how allies are making the most of specialised, strategic collaborations.  

It is likely that CGS’s 2023 speech will follow the trend of highlighting multi-national collaborations, the Indo-Pacific strategy and the role the UK can play within wider alliances, including with those countries which are on a path to be part of NATO’s Nordic expansion. Ongoing procurement plans are an important part of this, and we look forward to updates on the progress of such plans as the Boxer programme and the medium helicopter capability programme. Such capabilities will be essential to the UK and allies, proving especially critical in the wake of the Ukrainian war.

The emphasis of those procurement plans – and the capabilities they deliver – is slowly changing, however. Sir Mark referred to the various epochs of Army modernisation that have occurred throughout the ages and pitched his belief that we are entering a culture-challenging, industry-disrupting era of digitalisation. When challenging the status-quo in defence, and bringing about the adoption of new technologies, there is often resistance. This seems to be particularly evident in the case of AI and Unmanned Systems. To mitigate such resistance, the MOD’s ethical and trusted approach to AI is guiding the Army’s adoption of the technology, to help maintain a strategic edge on the battlefield of tomorrow.

Sir Mark’s comments suggested that the digitalisation of the Army represents the biggest development to follow mechanisation, which saw automobiles replace horses in warfare. Now, as then, the ramifications for the Future Soldier are significant. This new digital culture will demand skills that have no legacy career path for the Army, and even the full range of skills required remains unclear. In order to effectively deliver the future capabilities demanded of an “asymmetric” and “dynamic” force structure, the entire TESRR (Training, Education, Skills, Recruitment, Resettlement) funnel will need to be re-examined, including the perception among some that by becoming more specialised, the Army is getting smaller and in turn this may just add to the armed forces recruitment challenge seen here and globally.

The expansion of the British Army’s skill base, as well as the adoption of emerging technologies – including AI, Robotics, Big Data and Uncrewed Systems – is re-forging its relationship with industry. This change in relationship was set out in the Land Industrial Strategy, central to the realisation of the Army’s Future Soldier modernisation program, and will be further impacted by the release of the Integrated Review update which is expected later this year.

At the time of writing, it has only been sixteen months since Sir Mark spoke at DSEI 2021. Within that short timeframe, the world has undergone a seismic shift as a direct result of the invasion of the Ukraine. Rapid deployment and agile training have both become urgent operating concepts; Defence spending across NATO has massively increased; and integrated operations between allies, public and private sectors moved from a strategic goal to a vital tactic. The lessons learned from the first continental European war in a century could – and must – change how the Defence industry operates from now on. We look forward to hearing Sir Patrick’s views on how this change might be delivered during his keynote address as CGS at DSEI in September 2023.

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